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Ozone

 

INTERNATIONAL REGULATION OF
CFCS AND OTHER OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES:
CASE STUDY

Copyright: Ronald B. Mitchell
University of Oregon
28 June 1995

ASSIGNMENT

The attached timeline of major events related to the negotiation of the Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer does not have any dates across the top. Instead it has five points in time denoted by the letters A, B, C, D, and E. Please prepare for class by preparing answers to each of the following questions. The goal of this exercise is NOT to figure out what dates correspond to A-E. Rather, the goal is to have you PREDICT when negotiations would be successful. Even if you know when the Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol were actually signed, if you didn't know that, when would theory have led you to PREDICT signature. In short, the goal is to use theories of the relationship between the independent variables of scientific knowledge, state power, NGO power, industry power, and the media, and the dependent variable of negotiation success.

At which of these five points would theory lead you to predict that the nations of the world would have agreed to legally binding rules to reduce emissions of CFCs?

At which point would theory lead you to predict that the nations of the world would have agreed to legally binding rules to eliminate emissions of CFCs?

What factors would theory tell you made these two agreements possible at the points in time at which they occurred but not before?

What factors does your analysis suggest must be "in place" before you can achieve substantive agreement to solve an international environmental problem? Are those factors "in place" yet in the issue area of global warming and climate change? What about in the issue area of protecting wetlands as habitats for migratory bird species? For pictures of the ozone hole over time, try the following sites:
Ozone Hole Picture #1
Ozone Hole Picture #2
Ozone Hole Picture #3

 

 TIMELINE FOR THE OZONE CASE AND CFC CONTROL                74             77             80        82        84   85   86   87   88        90        92                 |--------------|--------------|---------|---------|----|----|----|----|---------|---------|  Science    Rowlands           <-----wide range of estimates--->    Ozone      CFCs                 Data for            & Molina                 of damage to ozone layer       hole      linked               hole found            article                                                 found     to hole             & discredited Industry                     Dupont      Alliance         Reps as       Dupont      Dupont       Only France                           says "rep.   for Resp. CFC      national     supports   ban by 1999    has reps on                            evidence"   Policy formed      delegates    control   Others follow   delegation NGOs                                                             NRDC     US reps   FOEUK   Reps as                                                                 lawsuit  to Japan  boycott  national                                                                           & Eur.            delegates Press                         Aerosol                               Ozone      Ozone                Ozone                                articles                              articles   articles             articles U.S.                    Aerosol   Plans  Reagan     Reject      Toronto   Congress                  Congress                           ban     to go  elected   control plan   Group   threatens                 passes                                  further                                unilat. cuts                faster                                                                         & trade bans                phaseout Nordic/Canada             Aerosol                   Propose     Toronto                           CFC ban                 control plan   Group Europe                                             Reject                 Industry                                                  control plan            loses power Developing countries                                                                    Press                                                                                       for $ and                                                                                       tech xfer International             1st intl                1st Ozone         Vienna    Montreal    London                           meeting                    WG           Convention  Protocol    Amends                         World Plan of                           Action  TIMELINE FOR THE OZONE CASE AND CFC CONTROL                              A                         B               C          D            E Science    Rowlands           <-----wide range of estimates--->    Ozone      CFCs                 Data for            & Molina                 of damage to ozone layer       hole      linked               hole found            article                                                 found     to hole             & discredited Industry                     Dupont      Alliance         Reps as       Dupont      Dupont       Only France                           says "rep.   for Resp. CFC      national     supports   ban by 1999    has reps on                            evidence"   Policy formed      delegates    control   Others follow   delegation NGOs                                                             NRDC     US reps   FOEUK   Reps as                                                                 lawsuit  to Japan  boycott  national                                                                           & Eur.            delegates Press                         Aerosol                               Ozone      Ozone                Ozone                                articles                              articles   articles             articles U.S.                    Aerosol   Plans  Reagan     Reject      Toronto   Congress                  Congress                           ban     to go  elected   control plan   Group   threatens                 passes                                  further                                unilat. cuts                faster                                                                         & trade bans                phaseout Nordic/Canada             Aerosol                   Propose     Toronto                           CFC ban                 control plan   Group Europe                                             Reject                 Industry                                                  control plan            loses power Developing countries                                                                    Press                                                                                       for $ and                                                                                       tech xfer