CFCS AND OTHER OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES:
CASE STUDY
Copyright: Ronald B. Mitchell
University of Oregon
28 June 1995
ASSIGNMENT
The attached timeline of major events related to the negotiation of the Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer does not have any dates across the top. Instead it has five points in time denoted by the letters A, B, C, D, and E. Please prepare for class by preparing answers to each of the following questions. The goal of this exercise is NOT to figure out what dates correspond to A-E. Rather, the goal is to have you PREDICT when negotiations would be successful. Even if you know when the Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol were actually signed, if you didn't know that, when would theory have led you to PREDICT signature. In short, the goal is to use theories of the relationship between the independent variables of scientific knowledge, state power, NGO power, industry power, and the media, and the dependent variable of negotiation success.
At which of these five points would theory lead you to predict that the nations of the world would have agreed to legally binding rules to reduce emissions of CFCs?
At which point would theory lead you to predict that the nations of the world would have agreed to legally binding rules to eliminate emissions of CFCs?
What factors would theory tell you made these two agreements possible at the points in time at which they occurred but not before?
What factors does your analysis suggest must be "in place" before you can achieve substantive agreement to solve an international environmental problem? Are those factors "in place" yet in the issue area of global warming and climate change? What about in the issue area of protecting wetlands as habitats for migratory bird species? For pictures of the ozone hole over time, try the following sites:
Ozone Hole Picture #1
Ozone Hole Picture #2
Ozone Hole Picture #3
TIMELINE FOR THE OZONE CASE AND CFC CONTROL 74 77 80 82 84 85 86 87 88 90 92 |--------------|--------------|---------|---------|----|----|----|----|---------|---------| Science Rowlands <-----wide range of estimates---> Ozone CFCs Data for & Molina of damage to ozone layer hole linked hole found article found to hole & discredited Industry Dupont Alliance Reps as Dupont Dupont Only France says "rep. for Resp. CFC national supports ban by 1999 has reps on evidence" Policy formed delegates control Others follow delegation NGOs NRDC US reps FOEUK Reps as lawsuit to Japan boycott national & Eur. delegates Press Aerosol Ozone Ozone Ozone articles articles articles articles U.S. Aerosol Plans Reagan Reject Toronto Congress Congress ban to go elected control plan Group threatens passes further unilat. cuts faster & trade bans phaseout Nordic/Canada Aerosol Propose Toronto CFC ban control plan Group Europe Reject Industry control plan loses power Developing countries Press for $ and tech xfer International 1st intl 1st Ozone Vienna Montreal London meeting WG Convention Protocol Amends World Plan of Action TIMELINE FOR THE OZONE CASE AND CFC CONTROL A B C D E Science Rowlands <-----wide range of estimates---> Ozone CFCs Data for & Molina of damage to ozone layer hole linked hole found article found to hole & discredited Industry Dupont Alliance Reps as Dupont Dupont Only France says "rep. for Resp. CFC national supports ban by 1999 has reps on evidence" Policy formed delegates control Others follow delegation NGOs NRDC US reps FOEUK Reps as lawsuit to Japan boycott national & Eur. delegates Press Aerosol Ozone Ozone Ozone articles articles articles articles U.S. Aerosol Plans Reagan Reject Toronto Congress Congress ban to go elected control plan Group threatens passes further unilat. cuts faster & trade bans phaseout Nordic/Canada Aerosol Propose Toronto CFC ban control plan Group Europe Reject Industry control plan loses power Developing countries Press for $ and tech xfer